Friday, December 13, 2013

Lookout Mountain 50 Miler Finishing Times: Summary and Predictions

I've been delayed in publishing this report because I really wanted to show you some elevation profiles of the race, but with the course change and a longer distance than I'm used to drawing (I'm a 50km map drawing specialist ;) it became clear that I wouldn't finish.

So I present to you first a prediction of how you should fare in the Lookout Mountain 50 Miler presuming you've run the StumpJump 50k before. Just like the UpChuck50k report, I've found runners who have run both the LM50 and the StumpJump, averaged their times and used them to build a linear prediction model. I didn't find any recommended times from race management, so the red line has been omitted. Of course there's an obvious flaw in the model given the difference in race length when comparing the two, and another flaw would be if a runner who has not run a 50 miler before but has run the StumpJump may find their predicted time a little ambitious.

lm50-prediction

StumpJumpTime ModelRecommendation
04:00:00 07:16:04
04:30:00 07:56:36
05:00:00 08:37:08
05:30:00 09:17:40
06:00:00 09:58:12
06:30:00 10:38:44
07:00:00 11:19:16
07:30:00 11:59:48
08:00:00 12:40:20
08:30:00 13:20:52
09:00:00 14:01:24

And just like the StumpJump50k report, here are a few interesting graphs which you might want to peruse before the race..

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